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Retail trends

Peak stuff: the rise of rental retail

Whenever I give talks on the store of the future, I always sum up with this line: the store won’t just be a place to transact but also to eat, play, work, discover, learn and borrow.

There’s usually a lot of nodding heads until I mention the b-word. Fair enough – shops naturally want to sell, rather than lend, to their customers.

In fact, our very economy depends on it.

Over half a century ago, American economist Victor Lebow noted how the economy “demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in consumption… we need things consumed, burned up, worn out, replaced and discarded at an ever-increasing pace.”

That was in 1955.

The times are finally changing. We are entering an age where access will trump ownership. This is due to the combination of a growing population, unprecedented connectivity and shifts in consumer values and priorities.

We are no longer defined by our material possessions. Instead, we’re opting to spend less on stuff and more on experiences.

Last year, according to a Barclaycard UK survey, expenditure on entertainment and travel generated the highest growth (9% and 7% respectively), while spending in most discretionary retail categories was either flat or in decline.

Millennials and younger generations are increasingly – though not necessarily willingly – forgoing ownership of homes, cars, bikes, music, books, DVDs, clothes and even pets. Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum predicts that by 2030, products will become services and the notion of shopping will become a “distant memory”.

The trend is compounded by a growing awareness of sustainability and, therefore, more mindful consumption. The concept of a circular economy is gaining momentum and it’s going to hit retail hard.

Service, share and rent

Ikea made waves with its recent announcement of a trial furniture rental scheme in Switzerland. This might sound like a radical departure for the flatpack king, but let’s not forget that Ikea was one of the first retailers to address the rather thorny topic of ‘peak stuff’ a few years back.

It has since set the ambitious goal of using only renewable and recycled materials in its products by 2030. In some markets, Ikea already buys back used furniture so the rental scheme is a natural extension.

When Boots boss Seb James was running Dixons Carphone, he acknowledged that shoppers were only “grazing on ownership” and expressed an interest in a similar type of subscription model for durable goods.

And you can see what’s in it for the retailer. Aside from the obvious eco brownie points, rental schemes allow retailers to get closer to customers by offering additional services such as assembly and repairs. This idea of ‘retail as a service’ is exactly why Ikea acquired Taskrabbit last year.

In today’s market, you have to transcend the transaction and develop a deeper emotional connection with your customers.

The category most familiar with rental retail is fashion. Luxury retailers have spearheaded the trend, with Rent the Runway describing itself as the world’s largest dry cleaner. But can it go mainstream?

Property giant Westfield thinks so. Its vision for the shopping centre of the future, dubbed Destination 2028, reflects the rise in the sharing economy with space dedicated to renting everything from clothes to exercise gear.

Rental retail makes sense, first and foremost, for those categories where the product itself can be delivered digitally – music, video, etc. And there is clearly demand for rental fashion among younger consumers which could solve the industry’s latest dilemma: ‘wardrobing’ (the ugly, unintended consequence of free delivery and returns).

But for those products that don’t become services, retailers should be seeking to extend their lifecycle. The days of throwaway fashion are numbered, and high street retailers are already taking steps to address our culture of waste.

H&M, for example, runs ‘Take Care’ workshops in some stores to educate shoppers on how to get more life out of their wardrobe.

Whether it’s teaching customers how to remove a stain or leasing them an entire kitchen, retailers need to start thinking of new, innovative ways to serve a more conscious, no-strings-attached consumer.

A version of this article originally appeared on Retail Week.

Categories
E-commerce Retail trends

The Retail Summit: 5 takeaways

What a fantastic couple of days at The Retail Summit in Dubai. I had the pleasure of moderating two sessions on e-commerce and ‘new retail’ and interviewing a number of retail CEOs over the course of the event (to be shared in the near future!)

Here are my 5 key takeaways:

What apocalypse?

It’s funny how once you step outside the UK or US, words like apocalypse stop cropping up. There was a genuine sense of excitement among international retailers, many of which are in the advantageous position of not being in an overstored market to begin with. Store revitalization is easier when you have a clean slate.

Store reinvention – bring it on.

It’s clear that, even for retailers in mature markets that are contending with an oversupply of retail space, store reinvention is not optional. But all of the retailers I spoke to were optimistic – some even oozing with enthusiasm – about the future of retail, acknowledging that there will be losers along the way, but the ones that survive this transition will be better retailers as a result.

Chieh Huang, Founder of Boxed, and Bouchra Ezzahraoui, co-founder of AUrate, tell me how they’re disrupting the status quo.

Amazon’s existence is making for better retailers.

I always like to throw the A-word into the mix. Everyone I spoke to was quick to acknowledge that there’s no such thing as being ‘Amazon-proof’, but equally that Amazon isn’t the be all and end all of retail. Many CEOs were keen to point to the fact that Amazon can’t do curation, community, experience, discovery, personalization – all the things Miya Knights and I highlight in our book. This also means an end to ‘being all things to all people’ and that we’ll see more specialist, disruptive retailers popping up, catering to specific customer needs and styles.

Equally, Chieh Huang, founder of Boxed, told me how the Amazon/Whole Foods deal was actually beneficial in that it stimulated demand for online grocery in the US (although in the process it also created stronger competition as legacy retailers upped their game). Huang’s point echoes past comments from CEOs of Ocado and Instacart, the latter even referring to Amazon/Whole Foods as a “blessing in disguise”.

Let’s rethink the terminology.

Bouchra Ezzahraoui, co-founder of AUrate, a direct-to-consumer fine jewelry brand (the ‘Stitch Fix for jewelry’) told me that she doesn’t have employees, she has brand ambassadors. And I couldn’t agree more. As shopper expectations exponentially increase, retailers have to work harder than ever before to keep them happy. What was once considered a luxury or VIP service is now becoming the norm – everything from personal shopping to in-home delivery is becoming democratized. Therefore, customer service and experience should be prioritized and you’ll only get that with an empowered workforce. I’d argue that ‘employee’ isn’t the only word that should be reconsidered. What is a retailer? A store? The boundaries are blurring as retail space becomes less about retail, but more on that another day.

Joel Palix of Feelunique, Ghizlan Guenez of The Modist and Beth Horn of Facebook give their views on the future of retail

E-commerce retailers also need to become experiential.

Building trust and engaging with shoppers is always more challenging in a digital environment, particularly for smaller retailers. The co-founder of Made, Julien Callede, acknowledged that sometimes the best way to build trust is by (wait for it) opening a store. As we know, many digitally native brands are now moving into the physical space to offset rising shipping/customer acquisition costs, raise brand awareness and therefore grow online sales, and, for some, because they see an opportunity to disrupt the store experience. But for those retailers looking to stay purely online, there’s still an opportunity to help shoppers discover new items through product sampling, something Joel Palix has initiated at Feelunique, or through the use of influencers, as Ghizlan Guenez of The Modist has done (and in doing so, has helped modest fashion to break through to the mainstream).

For more insights from The Retail Summit, click here.

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E-commerce Retail trends Store of the future Uncategorized

The future of retail? Blended. [VIDEO]

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It was a pleasure to work with Dropbox on this future of retail campaign. There’s a lot of doom and gloom out there, but I believe the future is bright for those retailers willing to reconfigure for the digital age. In the future, retail will be more blended in that we’ll see an acceleration of the convergence of physical and digital worlds, but also in the sense that retail space will be less about retail. We’ll see a greater blurring of the lines between retail, hospitality and leisure.

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Discount Retail trends

Jack’s – a last resort

British supermarkets don’t have a great track record when it comes to running discount chains in parallel with their mainstream stores. But that’s not stopping Tesco from launching Jack’s – its final answer to the persistent threat posed by Aldi and Lidl.

Why now?

Aldi and Lidl have been trading in the UK since the nineties so why now? Well, shopping habits have evolved dramatically over the past decade. The 2008 financial crisis forced many consumers to re-evaluate their household budgets. Frugality went from being shamed to celebrated, and the notion of ‘smart shopping’ took off. What many didn’t realize at the time was that this would be structural, not cyclical, change. Some industry observers thought the discounters were simply enjoying their time in the sun, but the discounters recognized an opportunity to meet shoppers halfway, deviating from their lean operating model by broadening their ranges, investing in quality and the instore experience, and moving into better locations. As a result, Aldi and Lidl have become more credible, well-rounded competitors.

The launch of Jack’s is an admission that the likes of Aldi and Lidl have fundamentally changed the way we shop and there’s no sign of them abating. Tesco couldn’t pay the discounters a higher compliment.

Over the years, Tesco has attempted to stem the discounters’ growth through endless price cuts. They’ve reduced the number of promotions in a bid for more honest, consistent pricing, taking a leaf from the discounters’ book. They’ve launched their own discount brands and even created dedicated pound zones instore. The reality is that none of this has stopped shoppers from defecting to the budget supermarkets. Aldi and Lidl’s combined market share has grown by 80% over the past five years. Tesco has exhausted all their tactics – launching Jack’s is very much a last resort.

Will it work?

Let’s be clear – the odds are against them. But I’d argue that it’s better than standing still. Tesco needs 3 things to make this work:

  • Scale – you can’t run a successful discount chain with a handful of stores. If this is going to work, Jack’s will need to go big quickly.
  • Discount differentiation – ahead of launch, the biggest question for me was ‘What can Jack’s do that Aldi and Lidl can’t’? If Tesco wants to be a discounter, then they need to start acting like one. The model is based on simplicity and ruthless efficiency. So, Tesco must ensure that they distinguish themselves from the very well-established competition *but* without adding cost into the business model. Tesco has always had muscle but they’ve further strengthened their buying power recently, having acquired Booker and teamed up with Carrefour for joint purchasing. Tesco will differentiate by undercutting Aldi and Lidl on price. It really is as simple as that.
  • Distinct offer – some self-cannibalisation is inevitable, so it’s vital that Jack’s distances itself as much as possible from Tesco’s mainstream stores. To do this, and of course to keep costs down, Tesco’s own brands will feature heavily and all the traditional components of a full-service supermarket (loyalty scheme, online offering, counter service, etc) will be stripped back. 

So, what’s next? At best, Tesco will have won back some of its more price-conscious shoppers. At worst, Jack’s becomes another costly distraction. Either way, Aldi and Lidl aren’t going anywhere. This is about co-existing with the discounters, not stamping them out.

For more, check out my interviews on the Today programme (15 min in) or BBC Breakfast below:

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Categories
E-commerce Retail trends Store closures Store of the future

Debenhams: department stores doomed?

Weather. Calendar shifts. Experiential spending.

Retailers have many “dog ate my homework” excuses for when trading is less than stellar, but when a late snowstorm forces you to temporarily shut over half your stores, it’s bound to impact the top line.

While it’s important to acknowledge the impact of the Beast from the East, it doesn’t take away from the fact that Debenhams, like many department stores today, is struggling to stay relevant.

Strategically, Debenhams is doing all the right things, but today’s results highlight the scale of the challenges confronting UK department stores. Not only are they facing a perfect storm of rising costs and subdued demand, but the original concept of a department store – one-stop shopping – has become completely eroded by online retail. Unfortunately for Debenhams, many stores are tethered to long-term leases so there is no quick fix for addressing the shift to online shopping.

Twenty-five stores will be reviewed as their leases come up for renewal over the next five years. In an ideal world, they’d be more bullish but with an average lease length of 18 years Debenhams doesn’t have the luxury of simply closing stores overnight. Instead, the focus will be on reinvention and rightsizing – they see potential for at least 30 stores to be downsized, in a similar vein to competitors like M&S and House of Fraser.

But make no mistake – the department store model is under threat. In the past, it made sense for retailers to dedicate 100,000-plus square feet to these ‘palaces of consumption’, aggregating lots of brands under one roof. But today, shoppers have access to millions of products at their fingertips, so the idea that a bricks and mortar retailer can still offer ‘everything under one roof’ becomes laughable. Department stores must reposition themselves to be less about product and more about experience. Winning in retail today means excelling where Amazon cannot.

Under Sergio Bucher (ex-Amazon), Debenhams is trying to do exactly that. They’ve embraced store reinvention, recognising that the department store of the future will be a place not only to buy stuff, but also to eat, discover, play and even work. Partnerships with brands like Swoon and Maisons du Monde create a point of differentiation, while the installation of gyms and beauty bars and potential collaboration with WeWork allow Debenhams to make better use of excess space while simultaneously driving footfall. Store reinvention’s not cheap but it’s better than standing still.

But amidst all this talk of transformation, it’s easy to lose focus on the basics of retail – price, product, service. This is where Debenhams shoppers have arguably been left feeling underwhelmed. Pricing must be sharper and more trustworthy, range must be simplified (though more compelling) and the overall proposition must become more experiential and service-led. Otherwise, they risk a lot of empty treadmills and brow bars.

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Amazon E-commerce Fulfilment Retail trends Store closures Store of the future

INFOGRAPHIC: 2018 UK Retail Predictions

NBK Retail launches today with an infographic charting the forces impacting retail in 2018.

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Amazon E-commerce Retail trends Store of the future

Day one

After 15 years at two of the world’s leading retail analyst firms, I’m beyond excited to transfer those skills over to my new venture: NBK Retail.

I have always been captivated by retail and the way we shop. I have fond memories interning at a Connecticut shopping mall, where my career in retail started out by counting cars in the parking lot and, on Black Friday, making sure the store managers had access to endless donuts and caffeine ahead of the 6am craze.

Even in the quietest of times, retail is a fascinating sector. It is always evolving, becoming more convenient, more connected, more customer-dictated. But today, the scale and pace of change facing the sector is unprecedented.

A decade ago, Amazon was the 47th largest retailer in the world. Today, they’re number 3 – and could very well become the world’s first trillion dollar company.

A decade ago, online retail was the holy grail. Today, pure-play e-commerce is dead. As technology breaks down the barriers between physical and digital retail, having a bricks & mortar presence becomes vital for both brand engagement and ultimately driving online sales.

A decade ago, multi-day lead times were acceptable. Today, Amazon wants same-day delivery to become the norm.

A decade ago, we put the success of the discounters down to temporary effects of the recession. Aldi and Lidl’s share of the UK market has more than doubled in that time.

A decade ago, click & collect was just something Argos did. Today, virtually every high street retailer offers click & collect, as it enables shoppers to marry the benefits of online shopping – assortment and price – with the convenience of collecting instore.

A decade ago, the purpose of the bricks & mortar store was predominantly transactional. Today, the store is being reconfigured as a hub for both experiences and fulfilment. It must become a place not only to buy but also discover, play, eat, work, and collect.

A decade ago, the thought of food in our cupboards being automatically restocked sounded like science fiction. Today, frictionless commerce is becoming a reality thanks to the rise of voice technology, simplified and auto-replenishment capabilities.

And the list goes on.

I’m looking forward to sharing my views on both UK and global retail via this blog. In the meantime, if you’re attending the Summit E-Commerce Scorecard event this morning, I’ll be there taking part in a panel debate. Please come say hello!